Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Curtis Samuel

WR · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 26, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (-115/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 45.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 45.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders are a 6-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 5th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 62.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 126.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Curtis Samuel to notch 7.1 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile among wideouts.
THE BLITZ projects Curtis Samuel to be much more involved in his offense's passing offense this week (20.5% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (10.6% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Curtis Samuel has totaled a paltry 9.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 15th percentile among wideouts.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has yielded the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in football (just 124.0) to WRs since the start of last season.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency versus WRs since the start of last season, surrendering 7.18 yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-least in the league.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has excelled when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.91 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 3rd-least in the league.