Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Curtis Samuel

WR · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Washington Commanders · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:25 PM EST

Analysis

Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 41.5 (+106/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 44.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 41.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders rank as the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) since the start of last season with a 70.9% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense to be the 9th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.30 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Curtis Samuel to be a more integral piece of his team's passing attack this week (16.7% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (8.8% in games he has played).
The Washington Commanders O-line grades out as the 6th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

Opposing teams have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game against the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the NFL.
Curtis Samuel has put up a meager 4.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 5th percentile among wide receivers.
Curtis Samuel has been among the bottom wide receivers in the game since the start of last season, averaging a mere 15.0 yards per game while checking in at the 22nd percentile among wideouts.
The Washington Commanders have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.