Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

NFL · Player Props

Curtis Samuel

WR · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Cleveland Browns · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 41.5 (-130/+100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense to be the 4th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.42 seconds per play.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Curtis Samuel to notch 6.2 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 75th percentile among wideouts.
Curtis Samuel has been a more integral piece of his team's passing game this year (18.3% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (4.8%).
Curtis Samuel has been among the most sure-handed receivers in football, catching a stellar 74.5% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 85th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 11th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.
The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Cleveland Browns defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.42 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 8th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.