Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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NFL · Player Props

Curtis Samuel

WR · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs New York Giants · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-114/-116).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ -116.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Curtis Samuel has been a more important option in his offense's pass game this season (18.5% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (4.8%).
Curtis Samuel has been among the most reliable receivers in football, catching a stellar 73.4% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 82nd percentile among wideouts.
The New York Giants linebackers grade out as the 3rd-worst unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Washington Commanders O-line has given their quarterback 2.75 seconds before the pass (2nd-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
The New York Giants defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.61 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the slowest in the league since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 5th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 50.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 29.22 seconds per snap.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.9 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Giants defense this year: 8th-least in football.
The Washington Commanders O-line ranks as the 3rd-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack stats across the board.