Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

Curtis Samuel

WR · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Washington Commanders · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 6:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-105/-135).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will be rolling with backup QB Taylor Heinicke this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Curtis Samuel has been much more involved in his offense's passing offense this season (20.4% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (4.8%).
The Houston Texans pass defense has shown poor efficiency versus wideouts this year, surrendering 9.85 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-most in the league.
The Houston Texans pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, allowing an average of 7.27 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in football.

Favors Under

The Commanders are an enormous 11.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 5th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 51.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense as the 7th-worst paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.11 seconds per play.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 4th-least in the league.
The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.