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Curtis Samuel

Curtis Samuel Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 9

Washington Commanders vs Minnesota Vikings

Curtis Samuel Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+219/-338).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -324 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -338.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Commanders are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Washington Commanders have called the 6th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 62.2 plays per game.

Curtis Samuel has been a key part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 20.5% this year, which ranks in the 84th percentile among wideouts.

Curtis Samuel's 42.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 7.6.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Washington Commanders O-line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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