Curtis Samuel Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Curtis Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Curtis Samuel

WR · Washington Commanders

Receiving TD

Washington Commanders vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Curtis Samuel Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+219/-338).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -324 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -338.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have called the 6th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 62.2 plays per game.
Curtis Samuel has been a key part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 20.5% this year, which ranks in the 84th percentile among wideouts.
Curtis Samuel's 42.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 7.6.

Favors Under

The Washington Commanders O-line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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