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Curtis Samuel

Curtis Samuel Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 7

Washington Commanders vs Green Bay Packers

Curtis Samuel Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+268/-450).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -395 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -450.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Commanders are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.

The Washington Commanders have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 61.8 plays per game.

Curtis Samuel has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 24.1% this year, which places him in the 86th percentile among WRs.

Curtis Samuel's 42.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 7.6.

Curtis Samuel ranks in the 83rd percentile among wide receivers as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a terrific 0.33 per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing offenses have averaged 27.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the NFL.

The Green Bay Packers defense has yielded the 9th-least TDs through the air in the league to WRs: 0.67 per game this year.

The Washington Commanders have faced a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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