Curtis Samuel Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Curtis Samuel

WR · Washington Commanders

Receiving TD

Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 13, 2022 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Curtis Samuel Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+250/-350).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 64.0 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Curtis Samuel to be a more important option in his team's pass game near the goal line this week (24.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (16.0% in games he has played).
Curtis Samuel's 42.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 7.6.
Curtis Samuel grades out in the 86th percentile among wide receivers when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a terrific 0.40 per game.
The Chicago Bears pass defense has given up the 9th-highest Completion% in the league (68.5%) vs. wide receivers this year (68.5%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to call the 7th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
The Washington Commanders O-line grades out as the 8th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Chicago Bears defense has given up the 4th-least passing touchdowns in football to wideouts: 0.40 per game this year.
The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.