Curtis Samuel Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Curtis Samuel

WR · Washington Commanders

Receiving TD

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 5:10 PM UTC

Analysis

Curtis Samuel Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+300/-450).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 3rd-quickest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 26.71 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Curtis Samuel to be a more important option in his offense's air attack near the goal line this week (22.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (17.6% in games he has played).

Favors Under

Curtis Samuel has compiled a mere 12.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 18th percentile among wideouts.
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has yielded the lowest Completion% in the league (58.1%) to wideouts since the start of last season (58.1%).
The Dallas Cowboys safeties profile as the 8th-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Dallas Cowboys pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.
The Washington Commanders have faced a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.