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Curtis Samuel

Curtis Samuel Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 15

Washington Commanders vs New York Giants

Curtis Samuel Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+326/-608).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -542 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -608.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Curtis Samuel's 37.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 7.6.

Curtis Samuel has been among the most reliable receivers in football, catching a stellar 73.4% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 82nd percentile among wideouts.

The New York Giants linebackers grade out as the 3rd-worst unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

The Washington Commanders O-line has given their quarterback 2.75 seconds before the pass (2nd-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

The New York Giants defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.61 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the slowest in the league since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Commanders are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 29.22 seconds per snap.

Opposing offenses have averaged 33.9 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Giants defense this year: 8th-least in football.

The Washington Commanders O-line ranks as the 3rd-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

The New York Giants pass defense has yielded the 7th-lowest Completion% in the league (63.7%) versus WRs this year (63.7%).

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