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Curtis Samuel

Curtis Samuel Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 12

Washington Commanders vs Atlanta Falcons

Curtis Samuel Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+307/-552).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -507 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -552.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Washington Commanders have called the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 62.8 plays per game.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 6th-most in the league.

Curtis Samuel has been an integral part of his team's offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 17.0% this year, which ranks him in the 75th percentile among WRs.

Curtis Samuel's 39.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 7.6.

The Atlanta Falcons defense has given up the 5th-most TDs through the air in football to wide receivers: 1.18 per game this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Commanders are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.

The Atlanta Falcons defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 9th-best in football since the start of last season.

The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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