Curtis Samuel Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

Curtis Samuel

WR · Washington Commanders

Receiving TD

Houston Texans vs Washington Commanders · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 5:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Curtis Samuel Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+281/-481).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -408 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -481.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Curtis Samuel has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 19.0% this year, which puts him in the 81st percentile among wideouts.
Curtis Samuel's 41.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 7.6.
The Houston Texans safeties rank as the worst collection of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Washington Commanders O-line has allowed their QB 2.75 seconds before the pass (2nd-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Commanders are an enormous 11.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense as the 7th-worst paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.11 seconds per play.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 4th-least in the league.
The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Houston Texans defense has surrendered the 2nd-least touchdowns through the air in football to wide receivers: 0.44 per game this year.