Curtis Samuel Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Curtis Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Curtis Samuel

WR · Washington Commanders

Receiving TD

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 15, 2022 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Curtis Samuel Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+350/-680).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -577 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -680.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run on the slate this week at 132.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 61.7 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Curtis Samuel has been an integral part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 20.0% this year, which ranks him in the 82nd percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The Washington Commanders O-line ranks as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has yielded the lowest Completion% in the NFL (57.8%) vs. wideouts this year (57.8%).
The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-best CB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 7th-quickest in football since the start of last season.
The Washington Commanders have faced a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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