Curtis Samuel Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Curtis Samuel

WR · Washington Commanders

Receiving TD

Washington Commanders vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM EST

Analysis

Curtis Samuel Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+320/-589).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -586 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -589.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 7th-fastest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 26.90 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Curtis Samuel to be much more involved in his team's air attack near the end zone this week (12.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (5.9% in games he has played).
The Washington Commanders offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has yielded the highest Completion% in football (75.7%) versus wide receivers since the start of last season (75.7%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars cornerbacks project as the 8th-worst collection of CBs in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 4th-least in football.
Curtis Samuel has been responsible for a meager 0.6% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: a lowly 14th percentile among WRs.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.