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Craig Reynolds

Craig Reynolds Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions

Craig Reynolds Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game's spread implies an extreme running game script for the Lions, who are a huge favorite by 7 points.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Lions to run on 46.6% of their chances: the 8th-greatest clip among all teams this week.

The 9th-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a monstrous 59.4 per game on average).

The weather forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

While Craig Reynolds has earned 0.0% of his team's run game usage in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a more important option in Detroit's run game this week at 20.6%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the predictive model to see only 129.3 offensive plays called: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.

Craig Reynolds's 12.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year marks an impressive reduction in his running skills over last year's 31.0 rate.

The Bears safeties rank as the best unit in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.

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