Craig Reynolds Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Craig Reynolds

NFL · Player Props

Craig Reynolds

RB · Detroit Lions

Rushing Yards

Detroit Lions vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 31, 2023 12:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Craig Reynolds Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 21.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are an enormous 7-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The Detroit Lions have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a staggering 61.1 plays per game.
The model projects Craig Reynolds to be much more involved in his team's run game in this contest (26.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (15.2% in games he has played).
The Detroit offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in the league last year at opening holes for rushers.
The Las Vegas Raiders defense owns the worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, surrendering 4.85 adjusted yards-per-carry.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Lions to run on 40.4% of their downs: the 8th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by our trusted projection set to see just 124.5 plays on offense called: the lowest number among all games this week.
The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
The Las Vegas defensive ends rank as the 3rd-best group of DEs in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

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