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Craig Reynolds

Craig Reynolds Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 4

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks

Craig Reynolds Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+312/-567).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -539 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -567.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Lions are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 10th-most run-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 43.7% red zone run rate.

The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 10th-fastest pace in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.77 seconds per snap.

The Detroit Lions have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Craig Reynolds has run for 0.00 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the smallest figures in football among running backs (1st percentile).

The Seattle Seahawks defensive tackles project as the best collection of DTs in football since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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