Craig Reynolds Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Craig Reynolds

NFL · Player Props

Craig Reynolds

RB · Detroit Lions

Rushing TD

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM EST

Analysis

Craig Reynolds Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+312/-567).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -539 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -567.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 10th-most run-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 43.7% red zone run rate.
The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 10th-fastest pace in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.77 seconds per snap.
The Detroit Lions have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Favors Under

Craig Reynolds has run for 0.00 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the smallest figures in football among running backs (1st percentile).
The Seattle Seahawks defensive tackles project as the best collection of DTs in football since the start of last season in regard to run defense.
The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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