Craig Reynolds Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Craig Reynolds

NFL · Player Props

Craig Reynolds

RB · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 31, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Craig Reynolds Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 21.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Detroit Lions have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a staggering 61.1 plays per game.
The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Lions grades out as the 2nd-best in the league this year.
With an exceptional 13.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (93rd percentile) since the start of last season, Craig Reynolds has been as one of the leading pass-catching RBs in football in picking up extra yardage.

Favors Under

The Lions are an enormous 7-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The model projects the Detroit Lions to be the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 59.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by our trusted projection set to see just 124.5 plays on offense called: the lowest number among all games this week.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Las Vegas Raiders, totaling the fewest attempts in the league (a mere 33.4 per game) this year.
When it comes to air yards, Craig Reynolds ranks in the measly 17th percentile among RBs this year, with just -3.0 per game.

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