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Craig Reynolds

Craig Reynolds Carries
Player Prop Week 5

New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions

Craig Reynolds Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+129/-179).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -133 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +129.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 9th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 43.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 7th-quickest pace in the league (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.63 seconds per snap.

The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.

The Detroit Lions O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the league this year at run-game blocking.

The New England Patriots defensive tackles profile as the 4th-worst DT corps in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.

Craig Reynolds has been much less involved in his team's run game this year (14.3% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (39.7%).

The New England Patriots have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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