Craig Reynolds Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Craig Reynolds

NFL · Player Props

Craig Reynolds

RB · Detroit Lions

Carries

New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Craig Reynolds Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+129/-179).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -133 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +129.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 9th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 43.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 7th-quickest pace in the league (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.63 seconds per snap.
The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
The Detroit Lions O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the league this year at run-game blocking.
The New England Patriots defensive tackles profile as the 4th-worst DT corps in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
Craig Reynolds has been much less involved in his team's run game this year (14.3% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (39.7%).
The New England Patriots have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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