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Craig Reynolds

Craig Reynolds Carries
Player Prop Week 4

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks

 
 
 
Craig Reynolds Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-123/-111).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Lions are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 6th-most run-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 41.6% run rate.
  • The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 10th-fastest pace in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.77 seconds per snap.
  • The Detroit Lions have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • Craig Reynolds has been a much smaller part of his offense's run game this season (17.0% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (39.7%).
  • The Seattle Seahawks defensive tackles project as the best collection of DTs in football since the start of last season in regard to run defense.
  • The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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