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Courtland Sutton

Courtland Sutton Receptions
Player Prop Week 10

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos

Courtland Sutton Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+126/-165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +102 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -165.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Broncos being a huge -7.5-point underdog in this game.

The Broncos have been the 9th-most pass-focused offense in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 62.1% pass rate.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to have 131.3 total plays run: the 3rd-most on the slate this week.

In this contest, Courtland Sutton is expected by our trusted projection set to find himself in the 89th percentile among wide receivers with 7.8 targets.

Courtland Sutton places in the 89th percentile among WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive volume) with a colossal 62.7 mark this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Courtland Sutton's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 68.4% to 56.0%.

The Chiefs pass defense has surrendered the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (60.9%) to wide receivers this year (60.9%).

When it comes to defensive tackles getting after the quarterback, Kansas City's group of DTs has been one of the most skilled this year, profiling as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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