Courtland Sutton Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Courtland Sutton

NFL · Player Props

Courtland Sutton

WR · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 13, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Courtland Sutton Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-165/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme passing game script is implied by the Broncos being a a giant -10.5-point underdog this week.
The model projects Courtland Sutton to earn 6.7 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 75th percentile among wideouts.
Courtland Sutton's 72.2% Adjusted Catch% this season conveys a a meaningful growth in his pass-catching ability over last season's 59.4% figure.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are expected by our trusted projection set to call only 62.0 total plays in this game: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.
The Broncos have called the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 51.8 plays per game.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point regression in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive usage) from last season to this one, Courtland Sutton has been used much less in his team's passing offense.
This year, the daunting Kansas City Chiefs defense has conceded a feeble 59.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 7th-lowest rate in football.
The Chiefs cornerbacks project as the 7th-best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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