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Courtland Sutton

Courtland Sutton Receptions
Player Prop Week 14

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos

Courtland Sutton Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-106/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Broncos are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game versus the Chargers defense this year: 4th-most in football.

With an extraordinary 92.0% Route% (88th percentile) this year, Courtland Sutton stands among the wide receivers with the highest volume in football.

In this contest, Courtland Sutton is expected by the projection model to position himself in the 82nd percentile when it comes to wideouts with 7.4 targets.

The Denver offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all air attack stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Denver Broncos have a new play-caller this season in head coach Sean Payton, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 2.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).

The model projects the Broncos to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 58.4% pass rate.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are forecasted by the predictive model to call only 63.1 total plays in this game: the 4th-lowest number on the slate this week.

The fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Broncos this year (only 53.2 per game on average).

The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (62.6%) versus wideouts this year (62.6%).

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