Courtland Sutton Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Courtland Sutton

NFL · Player Props

Courtland Sutton

WR · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Courtland Sutton Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +109 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With an elite 92.2% Route Participation Rate (90th percentile) this year, Courtland Sutton rates among the WRs with the highest volume in football.
The leading projections forecast Courtland Sutton to accumulate 7.2 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 81st percentile among wideouts.
With an impressive 4.6 adjusted receptions per game (83rd percentile) this year, Courtland Sutton has been among the top wide receivers in the league in the NFL.
Courtland Sutton's 75.0% Adjusted Catch Rate this season reflects a substantial boost in his pass-catching talent over last season's 59.4% figure.
This year, the deficient Vikings pass defense has given up a colossal 69.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the 7th-biggest rate in the league.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Denver Broncos offensive strategy to skew 2.0% more towards the run game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays.
The model projects the Denver Broncos to be the 4th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 52.5% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Broncos to call the 9th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The 4th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Broncos this year (a lowly 53.7 per game on average).
When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Minnesota's group of safeties has been very good this year, projecting as the 3rd-best in football.

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