Courtland Sutton Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Courtland Sutton

NFL · Player Props

Courtland Sutton

WR · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 17, 2022 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Courtland Sutton Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-180/+150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -140 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -180.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Broncos are a 4-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Courtland Sutton to garner 9.8 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 96th percentile among wideouts.
Courtland Sutton's 70.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 54.2.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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