Courtland Sutton Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Courtland Sutton

NFL · Player Props

Courtland Sutton

WR · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Courtland Sutton Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-127/-104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +120 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 10th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 61.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Courtland Sutton to total 9.2 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 94th percentile among WRs.
Courtland Sutton's 74.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 54.2.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 58.4 plays per game.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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