Courtland Sutton Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Courtland Sutton

NFL · Player Props

Courtland Sutton

WR · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs Houston Texans · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 19, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

Courtland Sutton Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+125/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -155 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.0% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects Courtland Sutton to accumulate 8.0 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile among WRs.
THE BLITZ projects Courtland Sutton to be much more involved in his team's pass game this week (24.7% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (19.2% in games he has played).
The Houston Texans safeties profile as the worst group of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Denver Broncos O-line has afforded their QB 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Broncos are an enormous 10-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 7th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 55.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense as the slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.43 seconds per snap.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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