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Courtland Sutton
NFL · Player Props
Courtland Sutton
WR · Denver Broncos
Receptions
Denver Broncos vs Houston Texans · Week 2, 2022 Updated Sep 19, 2022 3:00 AM UTC
NFL Props Courtland Sutton Receptions

Courtland Sutton Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+125/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -155 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -160.

Favors Over
  • The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.0% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
  • THE BLITZ projects Courtland Sutton to accumulate 8.0 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile among WRs.
  • THE BLITZ projects Courtland Sutton to be much more involved in his team's pass game this week (24.7% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (19.2% in games he has played).
  • The Houston Texans safeties profile as the worst group of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
  • The Denver Broncos O-line has afforded their QB 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Favors Under
  • The Broncos are an enormous 10-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 7th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 55.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense as the slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.43 seconds per snap.
  • The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.
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