Courtland Sutton Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Courtland Sutton

NFL · Player Props

Courtland Sutton

WR · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Baltimore Ravens vs Denver Broncos · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Courtland Sutton Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.7% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Broncos are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The Denver Broncos have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 60.1 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 5th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Courtland Sutton to earn 8.8 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 91st percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to call the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Courtland Sutton has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the league, hauling in a mere 59.5% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 15th percentile among wide receivers
The Baltimore Ravens cornerbacks grade out as the 10th-best CB corps in football this year in pass coverage.
The Baltimore Ravens pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on just 3.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

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