Courtland Sutton Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Courtland Sutton

NFL · Player Props

Courtland Sutton

WR · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 11:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Courtland Sutton Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+115/-155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.5% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the league.
Courtland Sutton has run a route on 90.3% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 87th percentile among wideouts.
THE BLITZ projects Courtland Sutton to notch 7.5 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Broncos are a 6.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 2nd-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have called the 6th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 60.5 plays per game.
Courtland Sutton has been among the most unreliable receivers in football, completing a measly 59.7% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 18th percentile among wideouts

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