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Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 72.5 (-125/-109).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 69.5 @ -121 before it was bet up to 72.5 @ -125.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Broncos are expected by our trusted projection set to run 66.9 total plays in this game: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week.In this week's contest, Courtland Sutton is projected by the predictive model to finish in the 87th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 8.6 targets.After averaging 76.0 air yards per game last year, Courtland Sutton has made big progress this year, currently sitting at 100.0 per game.Courtland Sutton's 65.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive usage) ranks among the league leaders: 93rd percentile for wide receivers.When it comes to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Broncos grades out as the 2nd-best in football this year.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 4.5-point advantage, the Broncos are favored this week, indicating more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.The model projects the Broncos to be the 7th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 54.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may drop-off.Courtland Sutton's 62.9% Adjusted Catch% this season represents a noteable drop-off in his pass-catching ability over last season's 68.4% rate.Courtland Sutton checks in as one of the weakest wide receivers in the league at picking up extra yardage, averaging a lowly 2.25 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 12th percentile.
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