Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Courtland Sutton

NFL · Player Props

Courtland Sutton

WR · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 13, 2023 2:56 AM EST

Analysis

Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme passing game script is implied by the Broncos being a a giant -10.5-point underdog this week.
The model projects Courtland Sutton to earn 6.7 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 75th percentile among wideouts.
Courtland Sutton comes in as one of the top WRs in the game this year, averaging a stellar 52.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 75th percentile.
Courtland Sutton's 72.2% Adjusted Catch% this season conveys a a meaningful growth in his pass-catching ability over last season's 59.4% figure.
Courtland Sutton's receiving efficiency has improved this season, totaling 8.93 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a measly 7.93 mark last season.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are expected by our trusted projection set to call only 62.0 total plays in this game: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.
The Broncos have called the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 51.8 plays per game.
After averaging 100.0 air yards per game last year, Courtland Sutton has seen a big decline this year, now boasting 64.0 per game.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point regression in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive usage) from last season to this one, Courtland Sutton has been used much less in his team's passing offense.
This year, the daunting Kansas City Chiefs defense has conceded a feeble 59.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 7th-lowest rate in football.

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