Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Courtland Sutton

WR · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Denver Broncos vs Washington Commanders · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 2:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 47.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 57.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 47.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Courtland Sutton has run a route on 94.4% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 94th percentile among wide receivers.
THE BLITZ projects Courtland Sutton to accumulate 6.4 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 77th percentile among wideouts.
Courtland Sutton has put up a whopping 96.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 95th percentile among wide receivers.
Courtland Sutton has been among the leading WRs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 55.0 yards per game while grading out in the 79th percentile.
The Washington Commanders pass defense has shown weak efficiency versus wide receivers since the start of last season, conceding 9.10 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-most in football.

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Sean Payton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.4% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Broncos are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 9th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 54.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense to be the 2nd-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 30.43 seconds per play.
Opposing QBs have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in football.