Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Courtland Sutton

NFL · Player Props

Courtland Sutton

WR · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Denver Broncos · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 59.5 (-135/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Broncos are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
With an extraordinary 91.7% Route% (87th percentile) this year, Courtland Sutton has been as one of the WRs with the biggest workloads in the NFL.
The projections expect Courtland Sutton to total 7.8 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 85th percentile when it comes to WRs.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the Denver Broncos profiles as the 7th-best in football this year.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Broncos offense to skew 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized) with head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays.
At the present time, the 6th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (58.3% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Denver Broncos.
The model projects the Broncos to run the 6th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.9 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.2 plays per game.
After totaling 100.0 air yards per game last season, Courtland Sutton has fallen off this season, now pacing 66.0 per game.

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