Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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NFL · Player Props

Courtland Sutton

WR · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Denver Broncos vs Cleveland Browns · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (+110/-141).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 45.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 49.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Courtland Sutton has run a route on 91.9% of his offense's passing plays this year, placing him in the 89th percentile when it comes to WRs.
The projections expect Courtland Sutton to total 6.6 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 76th percentile among wideouts.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Broncos grades out as the 9th-best in football this year.
With an exceptional 58.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (81st percentile) this year, Courtland Sutton ranks among the leading WRs in the game in the league.

Favors Under

The Broncos feature a new play-caller this season in head coach Sean Payton, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Broncos to pass on 53.2% of their chances: the 6th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to have only 126.4 offensive plays run: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.
The Denver Broncos have called the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling just 53.2 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Browns defense this year: fewest in football.