Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

Courtland Sutton

WR · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Denver Broncos vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-104/-131).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 54.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 49.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With an elite 92.2% Route Participation Rate (90th percentile) this year, Courtland Sutton rates among the WRs with the highest volume in football.
The leading projections forecast Courtland Sutton to accumulate 7.2 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 81st percentile among wideouts.
With a remarkable 57.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (78th percentile) this year, Courtland Sutton has been as one of the leading wide receivers in the game in football.
Courtland Sutton's 75.0% Adjusted Catch Rate this season reflects a substantial boost in his pass-catching talent over last season's 59.4% figure.
Courtland Sutton's pass-catching efficiency has gotten better this season, totaling 9.32 adjusted yards-per-target compared to just 7.93 figure last season.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Denver Broncos offensive strategy to skew 2.0% more towards the run game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays.
The model projects the Denver Broncos to be the 4th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 52.5% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Broncos to call the 9th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The 4th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Broncos this year (a lowly 53.7 per game on average).
After accumulating 100.0 air yards per game last year, Courtland Sutton has fallen off this year, now boasting 62.0 per game.