Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Courtland Sutton

NFL · Player Props

Courtland Sutton

WR · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 14, 2023 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 46.5 (-130/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 46.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 46.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Broncos are a huge 7.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
Courtland Sutton has run a route on 92.1% of his offense's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 90th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
In this contest, Courtland Sutton is projected by the projection model to finish in the 78th percentile among WRs with 6.9 targets.
With an outstanding 55.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (77th percentile) this year, Courtland Sutton ranks among the top pass-catching wide receivers in the league.
Courtland Sutton's 75.0% Adjusted Catch% this year indicates an impressive growth in his pass-catching ability over last year's 59.4% figure.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Denver Broncos offensive scheme to skew 1.5% more towards the rushing attack than it did last season (adjusted for context) with head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Broncos to pass on 57.3% of their downs: the lowest clip among all teams this week.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are predicted by our trusted projection set to call only 60.8 plays on offense in this contest: the fewest among all teams this week.
The lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Denver Broncos this year (only 52.2 per game on average).
Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to test the pass defense of the Bills, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (a measly 34.6 per game) this year.

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