Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Courtland Sutton

WR · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 18, 2022 12:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 65.5 (-117/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 65.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 65.5 @ -117.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Broncos are a 4-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Courtland Sutton to garner 9.8 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 96th percentile among wideouts.
Courtland Sutton has put up many more air yards this season (123.0 per game) than he did last season (93.0 per game).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.52 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in football.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.