Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Courtland Sutton

NFL · Player Props

Courtland Sutton

WR · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Denver Broncos vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 6, 2022 11:25 PM EST

Analysis

Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 63.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Courtland Sutton to accumulate 9.2 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among wide receivers.
Courtland Sutton has put up significantly more air yards this season (114.0 per game) than he did last season (93.0 per game).
Courtland Sutton's 70.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 54.2.

Favors Under

The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
The Indianapolis Colts defense has surrendered the 4th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 126.0) vs. wide receivers this year.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has yielded the 7th-lowest Completion% in the league (62.6%) vs. wideouts since the start of last season (62.6%).

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