Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Courtland Sutton

WR · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Denver Broncos vs Houston Texans · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 11:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 58.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 53.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 58.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.0% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects Courtland Sutton to accumulate 8.0 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile among WRs.
THE BLITZ projects Courtland Sutton to be much more involved in his team's pass game this week (24.7% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (19.2% in games he has played).
Courtland Sutton has totaled a monstrous 96.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile among wideouts.
The Houston Texans defense has surrendered the 5th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (164.0) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Broncos are an enormous 10-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 7th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 55.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense as the slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.43 seconds per snap.
Courtland Sutton has been among the weakest wideouts in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging a measly 2.10 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 1st percentile.
The Houston Texans pass defense has excelled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.10 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 9th-least in football.