Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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NFL · Player Props

Courtland Sutton

WR · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Rams vs Denver Broncos · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 26, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 40.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 40.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.9% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Courtland Sutton to accrue 6.4 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 77th percentile among wide receivers.
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has conceded the highest Completion% in the league (71.6%) vs. WRs this year (71.6%).
The Los Angeles Rams safeties profile as the 6th-worst unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 4th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 59.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box versus opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.