Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

Courtland Sutton

WR · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 60.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.7% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense as the 6th-fastest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 27.08 seconds per snap.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Courtland Sutton to accrue 9.6 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile among wide receivers.
Courtland Sutton has been a more integral piece of his offense's pass attack this season (24.7% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (19.4%).

Favors Under

Courtland Sutton has been among the most unreliable receivers in the NFL, completing a mere 56.7% of passes thrown his way this year, grading out in the 12th percentile among WRs
Courtland Sutton has been among the least effective pass-catchers in football, averaging just 7.40 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 24th percentile among wideouts
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.04 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in football.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.