Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

Courtland Sutton

WR · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Denver Broncos · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM EST

Analysis

Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 50.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 52.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 50.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.2 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in football.
Courtland Sutton has run a route on 96.4% of his offense's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 95th percentile among wideouts.
THE BLITZ projects Courtland Sutton to notch 7.9 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among wideouts.
Courtland Sutton has accumulated many more air yards this year (101.0 per game) than he did last year (93.0 per game).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Courtland Sutton's sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 59.6% to 56.2%.
The Tennessee Titans safeties profile as the 8th-best unit in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.