Courtland Sutton Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Courtland Sutton

NFL · Player Props

Courtland Sutton

WR · Denver Broncos

Receiving TD

Denver Broncos vs New York Jets · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Courtland Sutton Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+211/-327).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +226 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +211.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 6th-fastest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.56 seconds per snap.
Courtland Sutton has been an integral part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 29.0% this year, which places him in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.
Courtland Sutton has totaled many more air yards this season (105.0 per game) than he did last season (93.0 per game).
Courtland Sutton's 64.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 54.2.
The Denver Broncos O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 22-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.2 pass attempts per game against the New York Jets defense this year: 10th-least in football.
The New York Jets cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best collection of CBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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