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Courtland Sutton

Courtland Sutton Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 5

Denver Broncos vs Indianapolis Colts

Courtland Sutton Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+160/-200).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Courtland Sutton has been heavily involved in his team's offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 26.1% this year, which ranks him in the 89th percentile among wide receivers.

Courtland Sutton has put up significantly more air yards this season (114.0 per game) than he did last season (93.0 per game).

Courtland Sutton's 70.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 54.2.

The Denver Broncos O-line grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 8th-least in the league.

The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has yielded the 7th-lowest Completion% in the league (62.6%) vs. wideouts since the start of last season (62.6%).

The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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