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Courtland Sutton

Courtland Sutton Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 3

Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers

Courtland Sutton Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+187/-276).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +230 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +187.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects Courtland Sutton to be a much bigger part of his team's passing game near the goal line this week (24.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (17.6% in games he has played).

Courtland Sutton has notched a whopping 98.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 95th percentile among wide receivers.

Courtland Sutton's 56.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 87th percentile for wide receivers.

The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has surrendered the 6th-highest Completion% in football (68.4%) to WRs since the start of last season (68.4%).

The Denver Broncos offensive line has allowed their QB 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 57.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Denver Broncos have called the 6th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 61.0 plays per game.

Opposing offenses have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in the league.

The San Francisco 49ers linebackers profile as the 4th-best collection of LBs in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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