Courtland Sutton Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Courtland Sutton

NFL · Player Props

Courtland Sutton

WR · Denver Broncos

Receiving TD

Denver Broncos vs Houston Texans · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 11:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Courtland Sutton Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+165/-225).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Courtland Sutton to be a more integral piece of his team's pass attack near the end zone this week (23.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (15.3% in games he has played).
Courtland Sutton has totaled a monstrous 96.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile among wideouts.
Courtland Sutton's 54.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 85th percentile for wide receivers.
The Houston Texans safeties profile as the worst group of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Denver Broncos O-line has afforded their QB 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Broncos are an enormous 10-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense as the slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.43 seconds per snap.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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