Courtland Sutton Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Courtland Sutton

NFL · Player Props

Courtland Sutton

WR · Denver Broncos

Receiving TD

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:21 PM EST

Analysis

Courtland Sutton Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+170/-242).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +178 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense as the 6th-fastest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 27.08 seconds per snap.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Courtland Sutton has been an integral part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 28.1% this year, which places him in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers.
Courtland Sutton has totaled quite a few more air yards this season (102.0 per game) than he did last season (93.0 per game).
Courtland Sutton's 59.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 87th percentile for wideouts.

Favors Under

Courtland Sutton has been among the most unreliable receivers in the NFL, completing a mere 56.7% of passes thrown his way this year, grading out in the 12th percentile among WRs
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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