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Corey Davis

Corey Davis Receptions
Player Prop Week 6

Green Bay Packers vs New York Jets

Corey Davis Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+145/-190).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -175 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -190.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jets are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 6th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The New York Jets have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 65.0 plays per game.

Corey Davis's ball-catching skills have been refined this season, with his Completion% rising from 57.4% to 67.2%.

The Green Bay Packers pass defense has allowed the highest Completion% in football (80.6%) versus wide receivers this year (80.6%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 2nd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.2 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the NFL.

Corey Davis's 39.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 53.1.

The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

The New York Jets have gone up against a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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