Corey Davis Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Corey Davis

NFL · Player Props

Corey Davis

WR · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Jets · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 5:05 PM EST

Analysis

Corey Davis Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 30.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
The Jets rank as the 8th-most pass-centric team in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 67.9% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 138.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Corey Davis has accrued a whopping 96.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile among WRs.
Corey Davis has been among the leading WRs in the game since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 55.0 yards per game while ranking in the 82nd percentile.

Favors Under

Opposing QBs have averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense since the start of last season: 10th-least in the NFL.
Corey Davis's 37.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 53.1.
The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
Corey Davis has been among the worst wideouts in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging just 3.10 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 24th percentile.
The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has excelled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 5.50 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-least in football.

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