Corey Davis Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Corey Davis

NFL · Player Props

Corey Davis

WR · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 9, 2023 3:56 AM EST

Analysis

Corey Davis Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-110/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 35.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 34.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 4-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 64.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 133.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
The Miami Dolphins cornerbacks profile as the 5th-worst unit in football this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

Corey Davis has put up quite a few less air yards this year (69.0 per game) than he did last year (95.0 per game).
Corey Davis's 36.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 53.1.
The New York Jets O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Corey Davis has accumulated substantially fewer receiving yards per game (41.0) this season than he did last season (55.0).
Corey Davis has been among the most unreliable receivers in the NFL, catching a mere 57.8% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 6th percentile among wide receivers

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